Research

Over the last 5 years, total arrears by non-bank lenders have consistently outperformed major bank, regional bank arrears and the SPIN index. This fact generally tends to surprise end investors, in fact it’s something that many fixed income investors seem to be unaware of. It seems that the market instinctively wants to think of bank […]

In the article below we explore whether the case study is a one-off, or an increasingly common example of when market prices dislocate due to ESG concerns, and ask whether these risks (or opportunities) are likely to continue to present themselves as the renewable energy transition evolves.

The impressive recovery in the Australian labour market has brought forward expectations for the timing of the RBA’s first cash rate hike. Earlier this month, the RBA indicated that it did not expect cash rates to rise ‘until 2024 at the earliest’ and remained committed to a 3-year government bond yield of 10bps. However, a

When interest rates on deposits are so low, and are likely to stay this way for many years, it is worth checking if investment arrangements are holding more cash than they require. One clear outcome of very low interest rates is the tendency for some savers to hold even more cash as they become more

The Australian Treasury expects that 60% of the economy can be recovered once we achieve Stage 3 of National Cabinet’s re-opening plan. This correlates with the RBA’s recent ‘Upside Scenario’ and provides a safe margin away from the most severe downside scenarios used by our major banks for stress testing purposes. When the recent consumer

Discussions on unwinding COVID-related social distancing measures have moved to the fore.  Australia’s leaders have managed the crisis relatively well so far.  In doing so, they have demonstrated competence and earned political capital which will help minimise the risk of subsequent disease waves and influence public attitudes.  Even so, excess fear may significantly hamper our

Both the Fed and ECB are in the process of reviewing their approach to monetary policy.  Over time, central banks have materially changed their approach to address shortcomings which have inevitably emerged.  Reviews of this magnitude are expected to result in change.  As the caustic effects of persistently low interest rates are showing through ever

Realm Investment House has reviewed the Labor policy proposal to deny franking credit refunds and concludes that Industry Funds stand to gain at least $20bn from SMSFs, within a year, if Labor’s policy to deny franking refunds is implemented. Please find attached our media release for this topic. For the full report please contact Realm

For non-fixed interest investors this story hasn’t had a great deal of attention, however for those of us focussed on domestic credit, the TLAC development is the biggest news in some time. Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill

The term premium is the difference between bond yields for a given maturity and the expected path of short term interest rates over the same period. By examining the term premium of the US treasury market, we find that this is now of a similar magnitude as for the OPEC oil shocks in the 1970s.

We have reviewed recent commentary out of APRA and added some of our own thoughts around the current debate. This informs our outlook and positioning around the Australian Tier 2 market. Download File

Ken Liow talks about forecasting and reactions to data, in light of recent GDP figures Download File

Realm discusses the RMBS market outlook for 2019 in the wake of a dynamic 2018 Download File

Risk markets have experienced heightened volatility over the last three months, as a myriad of geopolitical risks and softer global economic data have driven market assets into bear market territory. Credit markets have not been exempt with main indices experiencing extremely weak returns since the start of October. The market is focussed on a couple

AOFM to support public ABS/Non-Conforming RMBS issuance Download File

Realm AT2 Review October 2018 Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.

Realm AT1 Review October 2018 Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.

T2 Capital Review October 2018 Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.

Realm May Update Download File

US Housing Crisis… Can it happen here? Download File

As an investor in financial debt, we are preoccupied with the type of environment that could create events such as non-viability or create an impairment to loan pools inside and outside of the banking sector. Our research leads us to believe that severity and speed are key in making these tail events plausible, consequently our

Realm Australian System Risk Monitor – An Explanation Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.

The Realm Investment Team have spent the last couple of days speaking to treasurers and key influencers to build a view around the AT1 market on the back of Labor’s policy release relating to the treatment of excess franking credits. Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can

The Realm Quant Team take a deep dive into the drivers behind the current Bitcoin mania. Download File

A Systematic Approach to Understanding Bitcoin Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.

Realm Investment Manager Note: US 10 Year Bond Implied Target hits 3% Download File

Securitisation is one of the oldest forms of secured financing techniques. It is as old as banking, and it is a simple form of financing. It is the financial practice of pooling contractual debt and a straightforward way to take an illiquid mortgage and make it tradable by using the security of the cash flows

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) – Emerging from hibernation with improved liquidity Download File

This note looks at addressing one of the most prevalent topics in society at the moment, Bitcoin and blockchain technology. Ambiguity exists between the infamous digital currency bitcoin and its underpinning technology architecture, blockchain. A brief background on this popular technology along with its benefits and concerns are discussed. One theme of this research points

Update on the Federal budget and its implications on Banks Download File

An update on how Realm views the AT1 market and recent APRA comments Download File

Discussion on the funds exposures and thoughts on market rates and risks Download File

Notes on Realm’s AT1 strategy and prevailing environment Download File

Thoughts on Bank Credit Markets as exampled on Deutsche Bank by Andrew Papageorgiou Download File

Does the eligibility of RMBS tranches rated AAA for repo with the RBA increase liquidity of the entire RMBS market? Would a similar liquidity support mechanism through a repo facility for Australian fixed income managers benefit demand for AUD RMBS tranches? How would such a repo facility work considering the limitation on gearing for the

Realm Update – Investment Committee Resilience or Complacency Download File

A deeper look into the Importance of Low Long Term Rates to the US Economy Download File

A Quick Summary of the Importance of Low Long Term Rates to the US Economy Download File

Fitch, the rating agency, downgraded China’s credit rating in April from AA- to A+ , and has recently described the credit bubble residing in the Chinese shadow Banking System as “Unprecedented in History.” Download File

Who Will bail out Spain? Download File

Australian Dollar Short Conviction Download File

Increasing Discussions around Federal Withdrawals Download File

Review: Richard Kerr provides an assessment of the recent action of the Bank Of Japan and what it might mean for Currencies, Bonds and Gold. Download File

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Bank Treasurers Open their Books Download File

A Review of the Cyprus Situation Download File

Competition for Funding, and the role LCR plays. Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.

Looks at how market dynamics and investor appetites have impacted the view of the credit asset class. Download File

The Impact of the LCR amendments by the BIS Download File

The article touches on the impact of the unwind in the safety bubble. Download File

Is it too late for Germany to turns its back on Europe? Download File

When we look a little below the surface at the behaviour of the return seeking participants, what can be observed is a fight for relevance and survival by the plethora of hedge funds, bond funds and equity managers who oversee trillions of dollars all over the world. Download File

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UUPP Deflation When Worlds Collide Download File

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Currency Returns – Where do they come from and are they worth the risk? Download File

The cycle of European governments and regulators attempting to manipulate bond valuations via liquidity initiatives has failed miserably. This has been clearly illustrated by the diminishing half-life and impact of these measures on market prices… Download File

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Realm Market Update – Greek Update Download File

The need for a lower EUR Download File

Risk On Risk Off Download File

Spain in Detail Download File

Commodities and the Australian terms of trade have been a key topic of discussion over the last week. The Australian terms of trade are primarily driven by two bulk commodities, coal and iron ore… Download File

State Governments are being challenged by falling revenues and rising liabilities. Weakness in retail sales and changing consumer behaviour is reducing GST revenue (internet sales do not attract the GST). Is this is a paradigm shift that could lead to a permanent reduction in GST receipts? Download File

Point forecasts of any currency are perilous to make and invariably wrong. The AUD is, as we all know, one of the toughest to get right because its price embodies so many variables, both Global and Domestic… Download File

Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.

Due to the nature of this file, we require your contact details so we can send it to you via email. Please fill in the details below and we will email the document to you shortly.